Jason McIntyre
Co-host of THE HERD and FOX sports activities betting analyst
A couple of extra weeks of the NFL common season after which we’ll get straight to the playoffs.
But let’s not get too far forward.
There are nonetheless loads of nice methods to guess on these video games because the season involves an in depth.
So let’s dive into my finest bets for NFL Week 15, together with a three-team teaser.
Invoices @ Lions (4:25 p.m. ET, Dec. 15, CBS)
This sport options the perfect participant within the league this season in opposition to the perfect group.
Josh Allen reveals up in Detroit after one of many best video games a quarterback has ever had. In the 44-42 loss to the Rams, he had three passing and three speeding touchdowns. The loss dropped Allen to 9-2-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) indoors.
And he is getting reinforcements with prime tight finish Dalton Kincaid getting back from harm, in addition to rookie WR Keon Coleman. Expect the Bills to maneuver the ball with ease in opposition to Aaron Glenn’s man protection.
The Lions play man-to-man protection at one of many highest paces within the league since Glenn took over in 2021. That’s dangerous information in opposition to Allen, who can dominate together with his legs, particularly late within the season. The Bills like to save lots of Allen’s legs for when it issues most, which is December and January. And his carries have elevated this month.
The Lions have struggled all season defending QBs, from Kyler Murray to Sam Darnold. Yes, they gained these video games, however Allen is way superior to these guys.
I’m frightened in regards to the Bills protection. That unit was simply run over by the Rams, for a complete of 42 carries and 137 yards, however not more than twelve. Buffalo thrives in nickel protection, and that will have to vary as a result of Detroit will match these 42 carries with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit hasn’t misplaced in three months and I’m the one fool prepared to attempt to make them fade.
It failed miserably a number of weeks in the past in opposition to the Colts, nevertheless it labored final week in opposition to the Packers.
CHOOSE: Bills (+2) to lose lower than 2 factors or win outright
CHOOSE: ML Invoices
Are the Bills asking an excessive amount of of Josh Allen?
Three 7-point group teaser
Washington from -7.5 to 0.5
Miami from +3 to +10
Colts +4.5 to +11.5
Whenever I get nervous and really feel just like the jokes are overblown, I have a look at the teasers. Ideally, I like teasers the place I can tease the important thing numbers 7 and three, or go as much as 3 and seven.
Washington is on hiatus, wholesome and has new addition Marshon Lattimore, who can be becoming a member of the group for the primary time. And the Commanders have the reward of tackling backup QB Jake Haener.
With all-around expertise Taysom Hill on the courtroom, the Saints are 4-4 this season. Without him? That file is 1-4. And now he is out for the season.
Earlier this season, when Derek Carr was injured, New Orleans went to Spencer Rattler. He began three video games and the Saints misplaced badly in all of them. But it isn’t all about Rattler. However, it wasn’t nice. And now, the 5-8 Saints are headed for a top-10 decide within the draft.
Oh, and Alvin Kamara missed observe Wednesday and Thursday as a result of sickness.
Expect Dan Quinn to have a powerful sport plan, Lattimore to embrace the revenge sport angle, and a wholesome Jayden Daniels to execute a poor protection that ranks seventh within the league in missed tackles.
Tease Washington -7.5 to 0.5
Can Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels keep away from a UPSET in opposition to the New Orleans Saints?
Miami is the final group “combating for its season”, however earlier than taking +3 with Miami on the highway, think about a teaser as much as +10.
If you exclude the sport during which Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in opposition to Buffalo, the Dolphins have solely misplaced by double digits as soon as and that was on Thanksgiving in freezing temperatures in Green Bay.
This match is indoors and Miami can be alive till the ultimate whistle. The Texans aren’t good at something proper now. CJ Stroud has regressed. His yards per try dropped from 8.2 to 7.2, his passer score dropped, his QBR dropped, his interceptions elevated and his sacks elevated.
The offensive line is horrible, particularly at heart. And Miami’s line of defense is rising late within the season. It is led by Penn State rookie Chop Robinson.
If Jalen Ramsey can flip the clock again a number of years and overshadow Nico Collins, the Dolphins might win outright, because the Texans have solely two wins all season by greater than six factors. This occurred in humble New England and horrible Dallas.
Teases Miami from +3 to +10
Nick’s Week 15 Levels: Dolphins and Foals Hanging by a Thread
The Colts journey to Denver for what’s mainly an elimination sport.
And it is a robust place. They are on the highway in opposition to a Denver group that could be a 6-0 ATS favourite this season. He’s the perfect within the NFL.
Denver has remained the favourite for 3 straight weeks. Two of these have been extraordinarily fortunate, because the Raiders stopped on the 1-yard line within the ultimate seconds and the Browns threw an interception ultimately zone within the ultimate minute.
Both groups are on their byes, however one factor that might change this sport is what Gus Bradley does on Indy DC’s protection.
He usually performs three-zone protection, and Denver rookie Bo Nix has been destroying zones all season. He did not fare as nicely in opposition to people. With the additional week off, did the Colts set up some defensive schemes to confuse Nix? One may hope.
Meanwhile, Denver has a significant defensive downside going through CB Patrick Surtain, who graded out as the perfect at his place. Riley Moss’ harm compelled Levi Wallace onto the sphere, and he is been picked on and torn aside over the previous two weeks.
The Colts love deep taking pictures from Anthony Richardson and Alec Pierce, and if Wallace does not have some assist excessive, count on a few large performs.
And if the Broncos give Wallace assist, that softens the run protection for Jonathan Taylor and Richardson. The Colts may very well be alive to win, and mocking them over a two-point sport provides you cowl for a horrible late Richardson turnover, if he have been in comeback mode.
Teases Colts from +4.5 to +11.5
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who additionally writes in regards to the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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