Henry McKenna
NFL reporter
The careers of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are inextricably linked. Both taken within the first spherical of the 2018 NFL Draft, the 2 quarterbacks arrived within the NFL dealing with critical, if very completely different, questions on their skilled prospects. Seven years later, they’re neck and neck within the league’s QB hierarchy. And the subsequent chapter of their playoff journey shall be in opposition to one another.
So, who will come out on prime?
Allen’s Bills host Jackson’s Ravens on Sunday night time in an AFC divisional spherical conflict, the marquee matchup of the weekend. Buffalo and Baltimore made it by means of the wild card, beating Denver and Pittsburgh by double figures, respectively.
Allen and Jackson, the MVP favorites, are each by the way aiming for his or her second look in an AFC championship sport. In their solely earlier postseason assembly in opposition to one another, within the 2020 divisional spherical, Allen and Buffalo prevailed.
FOX Sports writers Ben Arthur and Henry McKenna got here collectively to match and distinction the careers of each famous person quarterbacks by means of the lens of this season, their subsequent matchup and their respective legacies.
Moderator: Henry, you had a narrative earlier this week inspecting MVP circumstances of each QBs. It was actually attention-grabbing, apart from the half the place you did not choose a winner. We will not allow you to off the hook right here. Who would get your vote?
McKenna: Well, shoot. In reality, I’ve averted selecting an MVP, as a result of I’d choose somebody and remorse not voting for the opposite. I’d go for Josh Allen. For a hair.
I noticed all of the numbers. Lamar Jackson has extra touchdowns, increased anticipated factors added (EPA), and fewer interceptions. Lamar has been extra worthwhile on the stat sheet.
But whenever you root your self within the movie, there’s a lot to like about Allen’s season. It’s not simply the notable throws or runs. It’s the way in which he is persistently dragged a roster stuffed with disappointing receivers to the No. 1 seed. 2 within the AFC, beating the king, Patrick Mahomes.
Arthur: I get the purpose about Josh Allen, and he positively had some all-time video games and moments this season. But I feel we should always all be cautious of potential fatigue relating to Lamar Jackson profitable a attainable third MVP.
Let’s have a look at the information: He was considerably higher than final 12 months, when he gained his second league MVP. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 41-4, the very best for a quarterback in a season with 30+ passing touchdowns in NFL historical past. He additionally surpassed Michael Vick for essentially the most profession yards by a quarterback. Jackson will not be solely the gold commonplace relating to being a dual-threat quarterback, however he additionally one way or the other makes vital strides each season.
My vote (if I had one) would go to Jackson.
McKenna: See, there’s an attention-grabbing query in there. Is Lamar the gold commonplace for dual-threat quarterback? I’m probably not positive. Because you may make the argument that Allen is simply as harmful – and possibly much more harmful as a runner.
I talked in regards to the Bills win over the Chiefs. How did Allen shut the door on Kansas City? With a 26-yard run on a fourth-down conversion. Amazing clutch. And he did it together with his legs.
He’s a cheeky brother. He throws his 250 kilos round in a means that can make defenders reluctant to hit him by the fourth quarter. And though the Bills clearly requested him to scale back his carry totals (which lowered his yardage totals), he nonetheless scores TDs. He had 12 dashing touchdowns this 12 months (and had 27 within the final two common seasons).
Arthur: When I say gold commonplace, I imply uncooked statistics. But I feel we will agree that each guys are PHENOMENAL at dual-threat quarterbacking. It actually simply is determined by what model you like.
Allen (such as you mentioned, Henry), is extra of a bruiser. Jackson, who weighs 205 kilos, is extra shifty and elusive. I’m extra in favor of the latter choice – much less good for the quarterback – however I feel an argument will be made that Allen’s model instills extra worry within the protection and doubtless galvanizes the offense to a better degree.
There’s actually no mistaken reply between them this season, as each QBs appear to be peaking. But which of those do you suppose finally has the next ceiling?
Arthur: I ought to go together with Jackson.
I feel his dual-threat model is extra sustainable over time (Jackson’s inconsistentness tends to result in fewer hits) and his progress as a passer has been vital during the last two years with Todd Monken calling the performs. His passing touchdowns have elevated for 4 straight years. His yards per try have elevated for 5 consecutive years. It looks like Jackson hasn’t reached his peak, though that is loopy to say.
McKenna: Ben, I’m with you there. We have not seen a man like Allen since Cam Newton. And my goodness, Newton’s manufacturing declined quickly. He performed simply 11 seasons and his manufacturing was elite for a fraction of that.
I’m not saying that is precisely the path Allen’s profession is headed. But I feel there’s a legit concern about attrition. It’s laborious to think about these guys are nonetheless on the rise, however you are proper, there’s extra potential to faucet into Lamar.
OK, so with the Bills about to host the Ravens, which QB do you count on to play higher this weekend?
McKenna: Well, it is going to as soon as once more be within the eye of the beholder.
I feel the Bills will win because of Allen’s sport administration. He might not accumulate essentially the most yards and even essentially the most touchdowns. But he’ll get first downs and touchdowns on the most important moments of the sport. Jackson could have a greater stat line. He may additionally play higher. But the Bills will head to the AFC title sport.
Arthur: I’ll say Jackson performs higher AND the Ravens get the win.
I’m positive he is properly conscious of the narrative surrounding him; who’s only a common season participant, contemplating his 3-4 file within the playoffs. I feel the loss within the AFC Championship Game final season also needs to be a motivation. I think about he’ll put quite a lot of stress on himself on this stage as he competes in opposition to a quarterback of Josh Allen’s caliber – and he will get to have a backfield associate like Derrick Henry alongside him.
Which QB do you belief essentially the most relating to the sport at hand?
Arthur: Allen is the straightforward reply for me. The Bills have persistently fallen brief within the playoffs in recent times, however it wasn’t due to Allen’s incapability to satisfy the second. We noticed, for instance, the epic duels he had with Mahomes.
Jackson, in the meantime, hasn’t performed as much as his requirements within the postseason. I feel there is a good probability that can change this 12 months with extra assist, however he does not have the monitor file but.
McKenna: I’m with you, Ben. I like the way in which Allen has carried out within the clutch this 12 months. I do know it is handy for me to view the stats after I had largely discounted them beforehand. But I’ll do it anyway.
On third and fourth downs this 12 months, Allen has a complete EPA of 42.7 with 0.28 EPA per dropback. In the identical conditions, Lamar’s whole EPA is 30.1 with 0.21 EPA per dropback.
If his first-team All-Pro choice is any indication, Jackson is on monitor for his third MVP award. But neither gained the Super Bowl, after all. Who do you are expecting shall be thought-about one of the best quarterback when all is claimed and executed?
McKenna: It’s actually tough. I’ve been cussed about Allen’s probabilities of profitable all of it this 12 months. He had a bit extra success in opposition to Mahomes. And if one among these QBs desires to construct “greatness,” he’ll must do it with a Super Bowl. (Or many.)
But I am unable to interrupt our dialog in regards to the size of every QB’s profession. About Lamar’s lead. It additionally helps that John Harbaugh gained a Super Bowl and should even maintain off on retiring till Lamar is finished. This means one thing. (Compare that to Allen and coach Sean McDermott, who has no Super Bowls to his title — and will sooner or later lose his job if he fails to ship.)
I’ll take Lamar.
Arthur: I’ll additionally say Jackson.
He already has three first-team All-Pro picks and is predicted to get his third MVP as properly. Allen has neither, and as we have identified, Jackson seems to have extra long-term upside. I feel Allen should surpass Jackson considerably in variety of rings to be thought-about “higher” by the tip of his profession, and it is laborious to think about that given Mahomes’ presence within the AFC.
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He beforehand labored for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, the place he was Titans beat the author for a 12 months and a half. It lined the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for 3 seasons (2018-20) earlier than shifting to Tennessee. You can observe Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
Before becoming a member of FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years masking the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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