Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Patrick Mahomes makes you cash as a loser.
Since taking on for Alex Smith in September 2018, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have been underdogs 14 instances. They are 11-3 total (SU) and a staggering 12-1-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) throughout that span.
Is a 92% protection price good?
Despite all this, the betting market has shifted away from Kansas City in Sunday’s matchup in opposition to the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings Sportsbook really opened KC -1 on the street, however Buffalo is as much as -2.5 on the display.
“We opened Buffalo -2,” a Las Vegas sportsbook informed FOX Sports. “We’re not concerned about being the primary to publish. After the market stabilizes, we go. And I’ll let you know what, our first restrict guess got here on Buffalo. It was slightly stunning.”
The line has been bouncing round Bills -2/2.5 for a lot of the week, and lots of outlets are enthusiastic about this two-way motion. After all, it is simple to help each groups. Many individuals are prepared to again Josh Allen & Co. as residence favorites, whereas others will blindly guess Mahomes as a “canine.”
It’s arduous to think about the road going any greater.
“There is all the time somebody prepared to take a 3,” added the bookmaker.
Armed with the second-highest level differential within the NFL at +97, Buffalo is an ideal 4-0 at residence this 12 months with a season-opening 34-28 win over Arizona, a 37-point drubbing of Jacksonville , a 24-point win over lowly Tennessee and a blowout 30-27 win over Miami.
Of course, none of those groups are stronger than Kansas City, a crew that Scott Van Pelt mentioned final Monday wasn’t unbeatable, however nobody can beat them.
Excellent line.
Can the Buffalo Bills finish the Kansas City Chiefs’ profitable streak on this essential matchup?
“Injury information for this recreation will have an effect,” professional bettor Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports he informed FOX Sports.
“Looks like Dalton Kincaid has a reliable likelihood to overlook for Buffalo. Looks like (JuJu) Smith-Schuster could possibly be again for the Chiefs. You even have information with Keon Coleman getting slammed for Buffalo. This is a season-long Chiefs protection that’s was a lot better than anticipated and has turn out to be the power of the Bills’ offense.
“This recreation and this market seems to be so much just like the Chiefs-49ers recreation from a number of weeks in the past. It’s talked about the identical method. The truth is, in these huge video games, as a lot because the Chiefs would possibly get outmatched on a weekly foundation in yards per play, they’re discovering methods to supply factors.
“Even although I normally consider it as slightly irregular, I’ve to look previous (Andy) Reid and Mahomes. They’re discovering a method and the crew is getting slightly more healthy. I can not assist however really feel like this quantity is gone too far for the Bills and as sq. as it might be, I just like the Chiefs +2 right here.”
I agree with Chernoff, however I really like the Chiefs on this week’s teaser. You can do a two-team, six-point teaser, beat the Chiefs to +8.5, and pair them with the Cincinnati Bengals to +7.5. Both sides must cowl the adjusted numbers to win and I actually like my possibilities.
If the Chiefs lose by 10 factors, I’ll increase the restrict.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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