“(A Trump or Harris victory is) two roads to the identical precipice,” Tangen stated.
Similarly, Steven Okun, senior advisor at public affairs consultancy APAC Advisors, informed CNA that whoever occupies the Oval Office won’t have a “change of route” in China politics.
“US-China coverage would be the similar underneath each the Harris and Trump administrations. There shall be extra tariffs and extra funding restrictions,” he stated.
Both presidential contenders have already made clear what they consider China.
“I’ll be sure that… that America, not China, wins the competitors for the twenty first century,” Harris promised in late August, when she accepted the Democratic nomination for president.
Meanwhile, his Republican rival, Trump – who launched a commerce battle in opposition to China whereas within the White House from 2017 to 2021 – has vowed to get even more durable on China and “fully get rid of dependence” on a rustic of 1.4 billion individuals.
China is evident on this difficulty and believes {that a} Trump or Harris presidency will decide the diploma of containment in the direction of the world’s second-largest financial system, stated Dr. Chen Dongxiao, senior researcher and president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS). at a latest public convention in Singapore.
Dr. Chen burdened that if Trump wins, he may have one other 4 years in workplace with out the stress of re-election. Under American legislation, a US president can solely serve two phrases.
He defined that this might fear China, as Trump may have “more room and potential” to mobilize federal businesses to serve his “confrontational, anti-China coverage and containment measures.”
China will not be anticipated to publicly declare and even trace at who it desires as America’s subsequent chief, observers have famous, as a result of it doesn’t need to be accused of interfering in U.S. elections. Chinese officers have repeatedly stated that the US presidential election is an inner American affair.
“They haven’t got the best to vote. They have a choice. But when they do not get their choice, they should work with whoever occupies the Oval Office of the White House,” Dr. Choong stated of Beijing’s perspective, primarily based on his conversations with Chinese teachers.
Professor Jia Qingguo, former dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies and a senior member of China’s high political advisory physique, believes that what issues is whether or not the incumbent candidate or that of the opposition social gathering will win, with the previous state of affairs – on this case, a Harris presidency – extra advantageous for Beijing.
“The cause is that in a presidential election the opposition social gathering would or ought to condemn the insurance policies of the social gathering in energy. When it involves (China insurance policies), invariably… the opposition social gathering candidate would condemn the ruling social gathering for being too gentle on China, after which vow to make some adjustments,” he defined at a latest convention in Singapore.
“When they get elected, they must honor a few of their marketing campaign guarantees – whether or not life like or not – and (in the event that they tried to take action), the connection could be in hassle,” he added.
Professor Jia additionally highlighted the danger of communication issues in the course of the presidential transition as some “tacit understandings” will not be conveyed, doubtlessly including friction between the Chinese authorities and the brand new US administration.
In the United States, a presidential transition is a proper course of wherein a president-elect takes over the administration of the federal authorities from the incumbent president, giving the incoming chief and his or her crew time to arrange for governance.
By distinction, a victory for the incumbent social gathering candidate – on this case, Harris – would seemingly imply a smoother transition and a few degree of political continuity – a predictability that Beijing will seemingly favor, he urged.
