Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
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The NFL common season ends Sunday, a season that started with the Chiefs’ survival towards the Ravens in Thursday night time’s opening recreation.
Usually, the ultimate week of the common season is stuffed with chaos and numerous completely different playoff eventualities. This 12 months? Not a lot.
The Buccaneers, because of the Falcons’ inexplicable clock administration Sunday night time towards the Commanders, merely want a win towards a depleted Saints staff to safe the NFC South. The Bucs are favored by two touchdowns in that recreation, so there’s not a lot drama there.
The Ravens want a win Saturday to clinch the AFC North, however they’re the 12 months’s largest favorites at dwelling towards the Browns. Cleveland, by the best way, is now on its fourth-string quarterback, Bailey Zappe.
We’re speaking about six of the seven AFC playoff spots. The last guess goes to the Broncos if they will defeat the Chiefs 15-1. The excellent news for the Broncos is that Patrick Mahomes and a number of other Kansas City starters will probably be rested for this recreation, because the Chiefs clinched the No. 1 seed after they defeated the Steelers on Christmas.
Ultimately, we cannot have the standard last week drama, however there’s nonetheless lots at stake. And that is the final time till September that we will get pleasure from watching a number of NFL video games on the similar time.
I discussed the Chiefs securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, however within the NFC, first place will probably be on the road in Game 272 on Sunday night time, because the common season finale decides the NFC North. The winner may also obtain a free weekend with a wild card and home-field benefit throughout the playoffs.
Let’s have a look at that recreation from a betting perspective.
Vikings (+2.5, 56.6) @ Lions
About a month in the past, I steered betting on the 11-1 Vikings to turn out to be the No. 1 seed. I took under consideration their respective schedules and calculated that the highest spot might go to this recreation.
Well, right here we’re.
The Vikings have ripped off 9 straight victories, with the final loss coming in October towards the Rams. The Lions, just like the Vikings, sit at 14-2, however will not be of their dominant mid-season type. Their protection has been persistently shredded in latest weeks as accidents have continued to mount on that aspect of the ball.
From a betting perspective, we’ve got the very best whole of the season: a whopping 56.5. But for those who’ve watched any staff not too long ago, you perceive why he is so excessive. In video games like this, with very excessive totals, the prop market is the place I search for worth.
While this market will not be but broadly accessible, most books will put up an Over/Under for the variety of punts in a recreation. I might have a look at Under at that spot when that market seems, since we’ve got two prolific offenses and two coaches who’re ultra-aggressive on fourth down. Another suggestion that’s generally supplied as the sport approaches is O/U 1.5 yards for the shortest landing of the sport. With so many anticipated touchdowns right here, I might have a look at Under on this market as nicely. There will probably be a larger probability of cross interference ultimately zone in some unspecified time in the future or only a quick landing in a recreation with numerous offense.
How Sam Darnold resurrected his profession with the Vikings
As for the sport itself, I’m touring with the Vikings. If you took my recommendation and acquired them 11-1 to be the highest seed, you will get the Lions on the moneyline and lock in a pleasant revenue.
However, I’m on the Vikings aspect right here due to the Lions protection. Last week, he gave up almost eight yards per play towards the 49ers, and that got here per week after permitting 6.5 yards per play to the Bears.
This comes after the Packers and Bills had scored a mixed 79 factors towards Detroit within the earlier two video games.
The Lions protection is the worst unit of the 4 we’ll see on this recreation, and I feel the Vikings win the shootout and take the NFC North.
PICK: Vikings (+2.5) will lose by lower than 2.5 factors or win outright
Bears Bets podcast contributor Will Hill has been betting on sports activities for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a visitor on VSiN and Goldboys Network.
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