Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The third bracket of the College Football Playoff was revealed earlier this week, and I’m positive many followers shall be excited to guess on a few of these top-tier groups this weekend, as these are those on the forefront of our minds.
There’s nothing mistaken with that.
However, I’m taking a distinct method.
Instead, I’m watching some video games with groups that will not be wherever close to the Playoffs, besides perhaps one.
Remember, there may be worth all over the place, not simply the perfect.
Let’s dive into my greatest bets for Week 13 of faculty soccer.
(All instances ET)
SATURDAY NOVEMBER 23
No. 16 Colorado @ Kansas (3:30 p.m., FOX e FOX Sports utility)
I make this guess each week and I will not cease now. Colorado’s staff complete exceeds 30.5 factors.
The Buffaloes are a scoring machine this yr. They are led by the potential No. 1 decide. 1 total decide Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and his military of gifted broad receivers, together with Heisman favourite Travis Hunter. The Buffs have scored greater than 34 factors in all however one convention sport, and the one they did not was in opposition to Kansas State. That was the perfect staff they performed on their convention slate.
There are solely two methods to decelerate Colorado’s offense, and one is extra vital than the opposite.
You have to have the ability to hit Sanders within the pocket and make him uncomfortable. Kansas cannot do this. The Jayhawks cross rush is ranked 91st by PFF. Kansas’ stress charge is 74th, which is why they permit quite a lot of explosive passes. Plus, if this sport turns right into a shootout — which is one other method Kansas can win — Colorado will rating a ton of factors.
I like Colorado Over 30.5 factors.
PICK: Colorado staff complete Over 30.5 factors
CFB Week 13 Best Bets: Michigan vs. Northwestern, Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Northwest @ Michigan (3.30pm, FS1)
This phrase is a bit of disrespectful to Michigan and I’m prepared to leap on it.
Even although the Wolverines aren’t who they have been in 2023, they are not a nasty staff. But Michigan -10.5 signifies that the scenario is unfavourable.
UM misplaced to Texas, Oregon, Indiana at dwelling after which Illinois and Washington on the highway. All 5 are bowl groups and three are playoff groups. Northwestern is 4-6, and the six losses are to groups which are typically in the identical grouping as Michigan. Northwestern misplaced 24-5 to Washington, 41-24 to Indiana, 23-3 to Wisconsin, 40-14 to Iowa and simply this previous weekend, 31-7 to Ohio State.
A pattern I’ve adopted this season and used to information my bets is to remove competent groups.
Michigan is competent, even when its offense tends to frustrate everybody. But the Wolverines had two weeks to organize after the aggressive loss to Indiana. Even if the report is not what they wished, they nonetheless play onerous.
Northwestern’s protection is not horrible, however I do not suppose it could possibly cease Michigan’s speeding assault for 4 quarters. The Wildcats’ protection is horrible on third down, and that is as a result of they rank final within the nation in common third-down clearance for opposing offenses. This will give Michigan a possibility to make a run at third place.
Something else to contemplate is that Northwestern’s offense is horrible and this matchup favors Michigan. The Wildcats are 129th in factors per drive and have a 3-pointer on practically a 3rd of their drives. Michigan’s protection is above common, even with some accidents at cornerback.
Northwestern shall be fortunate to get to 10 factors on this sport. I like Michigan to cowl.
PICK: Michigan (-10.5) wins by greater than 10.5 factors
Ohio State vs. Indiana: CFB Week 13 Super Six Betting
Washington State @ State of Oregon (7 p.m., CW Network)
Washington State’s excellent season was barely derailed final weekend with a surprising loss at New Mexico. But the Cougars ought to bounce again this weekend in opposition to Oregon State.
Oregon State began 4-1, together with a win in opposition to potential Mountain West Championship Game participant Colorado State. But since that win over the Rams, the Beavers have misplaced 5 in a row, and every defeat has gotten progressively worse. For instance, this previous weekend they only misplaced to Air Force 28-0.
Oregon State has points and accidents at quarterback, accidents at working again and solely has one dependable receiver. The staff has scored simply 4 passing touchdowns this season.
The Beavers’ protection is not good and that unit has harm points as effectively. He is one hundred and tenth in factors per drive, a hundred and fifteenth in EPA in opposition to the cross and 116th on third down. It will not be a very good matchup in opposition to a Washington State offense that is excellent. The Cougars’ offense ranks tenth in factors per drive and will get quite a lot of explosive performs. He will rating usually in opposition to the Beavers.
On the opposite hand, Washington State’s protection is not nice and could be scored on, however not by the Beavers. Oregon State boasts a good offensive line and working sport, however does not rating touchdowns.
The Beavers’ final three video games have featured seven factors in opposition to Cal, 13 in opposition to San Jose State and 0 in opposition to Air Force. SJSU and Air Force haven’t got nice defenses.
I actually just like the Cougars on this sport.
PICK: Washington State (-12.5) wins by greater than 12.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper sort out for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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