Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Now that we’re within the last video games of the primary 12 months of the 12-team College Football Playoff, issues are going to get much more attention-grabbing.
Will Notre Dame dwell as much as expectations and silence the doubters two video games in a row? Are the Buckeyes as lethal or as unstoppable as they appeared lately?
Read on to see how I guess on semi-final matches.
(All instances ET)
THURSDAY JAN. 9
No.7 Our Lady in opposition to the no. 6 Pen State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
These groups are very comparable in personnel and potential path to victory. Both wish to management the road of scrimmage, run the ball and restrict the conditions wherein they need to go to allow them to keep away from quarterback errors and maintain the soccer.
Notre Dame is second within the nation in yards per rush, with quarterback Riley Leonard being an enormous asset in that a part of the sport plan. Penn State ranks seventeenth in yards per carry with its twin operating again system. However, Notre Dame operating again Jeremiyah Love is coping with a leg harm.
Yes, his coach stated he’s enjoying, however how efficient will he be?
In the Irish’s first two playoff video games, their operating sport wasn’t as efficient on account of Love’s harm. Against Indiana, they ran for 198 yards on 35 carries, however 98 of these got here on a single play. So that is 34 carries for 100 yards on the remainder of the speeding makes an attempt. Against Georgia, they ran for 154 yards on 37 carries and their high defenders had 16 carries for 56 yards.
In quick, going through higher competitors the final two weeks, we’ve not seen their speeding assault resemble the second-best unit within the sport.
Penn State’s operating sport has dominated this postseason, although admittedly it has confronted worse run defenses. However, State rushed for almost 300 yards in opposition to Oregon within the Big Ten Championship Game, and with their dual-threat operating again rotation, the Nittany Lions are wholesome and might proceed throwing free rushers to Notre Dame .
Both offenses attempt to function with out passing the ball to their quarterback in pressured throw conditions. But this is a priority I’ve with Notre Dame: If its speeding assault is not at its typical tempo, how do the Irish generate offense with out an explosive passing sport?
CFP Super Six Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Texas, Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame ranks eightieth in passing performs of 10 yards (or extra) this season. This is low. What’s much more surprising is that the Irish rank 112th in passing performs of 20 yards or extra. They threw for 90 yards in opposition to Georgia and scored simply 9 factors outdoors of the 56 seconds wherein they scored 17, together with seven after a kickoff return.
On the opposite hand, Penn State, regardless of having no dynamic receivers, is twenty eighth in passing video games of 20 yards or extra, whereas they’re twentieth in passing video games of 10 yards or extra.
PSU is able to producing yards within the passing sport when wanted.
Finally, we have to analyze the turnover margin on this match.
Notre Dame has thrived on turnovers this season. The Irish led the game in takeaways with 31 this 12 months. Their turnover margin is eighteen, which is sweet for second within the sport. I discover it tough to handicap a sport based mostly on the hope {that a} group can pressure turnovers as a result of they want them to win. If Notre Dame fails to pressure a turnover, does ND win the sport? I believe most would say no.
Ultimately, I believe Penn State is a greater model of Notre Dame with extra methods to win. I’m choosing the Nittany Lions to win and canopy.
PICK: Penn State (+1.5) will lose by lower than 1.5 factors or win outright
Best bets, odds and predictions for the CFP Semifinal
FRIDAY JAN. 10
No. 8 Ohio State in opposition to quantity 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Ohio State is getting nearer to attaining standing because the 2019 LSU nationwide championship group, and that may be a buzzsaw that can obliterate each opponent on the best way to profitable the title.
Ohio State had an unfathomable loss to Michigan to finish its common season after which used that loss to show the offense round. The Buckeyes determined, rightfully, to throw the ball to their NFL receivers.
And guess what? They scored numerous factors.
Ohio State put up 42 in opposition to Tennessee and 41 in opposition to Oregon, and it is solely that low as a result of the Buckeyes let off the gasoline. Quarterback Will Howard is 41-of-55 for 630 passing yards in these video games. While it is definitely potential he reverts to the imply a bit in opposition to Texas, based mostly on Texas’ defensive energy, I doubt that would be the case.
The energy of the Longhorns protection will likely be its line of defense in opposition to an Ohio State offensive line that’s lacking key items from the common season. However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line performed nicely in opposition to Tennessee and Oregon, each of which had good defensive fronts.
The downside I see with the Texas protection on this sport is minor. The Longhorns have not seen a passing sport like this all season. The closest they bought have been Georgia (to whom they misplaced twice) and Clemson, who threw for 336 yards over Texas.
This Texas protection is not battle-tested sufficient to be ready for Ohio State’s passing assault.
Can Ohio State’s protection cease Quinn Ewers, Texas?
The most regarding facet of this sport for me is Texas’ offense in opposition to Ohio State’s protection.
Ohio State’s protection has allowed just one opponent to attain greater than 17 factors this season. That group was Oregon, and it occurred in each video games in opposition to the Ducks. The Buckeyes misplaced in Eugene on Oct. 12 and used that loss to tweak their protection to be extra offensive and use all-world security Caleb Downs as a hybrid security linebacker. Two excessive safeties are enjoying, with Downs being the third security, appearing as a linebacker.
That’s an extended, boring means of claiming their protection is exclusive and distinctive.
The regarding half for Texas going through this Ohio State protection is that the Longhorns have constantly underperformed on offense all through all the season. In 9 convention video games, they went under their anticipated offensive ranking in seven video games. That consists of each Georgia video games, the place they completed inside seven and 16 factors of projections.
I’m nervous about their offense going through Ohio State’s protection. The Texas offensive line is sweet when wholesome, however not pretty much as good proper now. Ohio State’s protection is constructed to cease outdoors the zone, which is what Texas desires to specialise in.
If the Longhorns need to depend on Quinn Ewers to win the sport, depend them out.
I like Ohio State overlaying and Texas scoring below 23.5 factors.
PICK: Ohio State (-6) wins by 6+ factors
SELECTION: Texas group whole below 23.5 factors
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the University of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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