Entering convention championship weekend, the College Football Playoff committee has made it clear that just one bubble spot stays.
Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, who can be the chair of the CFP committee, stated groups not taking part in this weekend will be unable to outperform different groups who’re following the discharge of the most recent rankings.
Notre Dame (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 6), Tennessee (No. 7), Indiana (No. 9) and the losers of the Big Ten (Penn State vs. Oregon) and SEC (Georgia vs. Texas) video games for the inventory at present holds six of the seven common choices within the CFP discipline.
With six of these spots seemingly locked up, Alabama at present holds the final spot within the 12-team discipline. The committee ranked the Crimson Tide eleventh in its most up-to-date rankings, which means Miami (Fla.) (No. 12), South Carolina (No. 13) and Ole Miss (No. 14) will be unable to beat them for the general finish level.
But Alabama might not have the final total level on the block. SMU, which was ranked eighth in the latest ballot, will play Seventeenth-ranked Clemson within the ACC championship recreation on Saturday. If the Mustangs win, they’ll obtain an computerized berth within the CFP and sure a first-round bye. If they lose, they will not have an computerized berth and danger being left off the sphere in favor of Alabama.
Let’s check out whether or not the committee received it proper in rating Alabama forward of the opposite groups battling for the ultimate spot, with perception from FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd. At the top you get to vote on which group has the most effective blind report.
Team A
- Record: 10-2 (.833)
- AP Rank: 14th
- SOS: 55
- Points/recreation differential: 20.3 (eighth)
- Wins in opposition to present CFP high 25: 0-1 (.000) Lost by 4 factors to solely CFP ranked opponent (at present ranked twenty second)
- Lost by 4 factors to solely CFP ranked opponent (at present ranked twenty second)
- Best Win (Highest CFP Score Win): Wins with zero CFP Score
- Record in opposition to FBS groups with successful data: 3-2 (.600)
- Record in FBS highway/impartial video games: 4-2 (.667)
Team A has the most effective total report among the many bubble groups and has been dominant in most wins this season. However, they’d no actual high-quality wins within the common season and are the one group on the bubble with out a win within the standings. They are simply one in all three groups within the high 15 to not win in opposition to a group at present ranked within the CFP ballot.
Team A additionally ended its season on a comparatively low be aware. They have misplaced two of their final three video games after beginning the season 9-0. He in all probability did sufficient in these video games offensively, as he arguably has the most effective offense in faculty soccer this season, rating first in yards and factors per recreation. He’s nearer to the center of the pack on protection, although, rating sixtieth in factors allowed per recreation.
Alabama ranked above Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina within the CFP rankings
Team B
- Record: 9-3 (.750)
- AP Rank: thirteenth
- SOS: 15
- Points/recreation differential: 13.8 (Seventeenth)
- Wins in opposition to present CFP high 25 groups: 2-2 (.500)-4.8 common level differential in these video games
- -4.8 factors common distinction in these video games
- Best win (win with highest CFP ranking): For the group at present in Seventeenth place
- Record in opposition to FBS groups with successful data: 3-3 (.500)
- Record in FBS highway/impartial video games: 4-1 (.800)
Team B was the most popular group of the 4 groups within the bubble. They have gained their final six video games, successful 4 by at the very least three factors. He additionally notched two wins in that stretch, successful each video games by one rating.
Team B’s path turns into just a little tough when you think about its losses to CFP-ranked groups. Both losses are to groups which might be additionally on the bubble, dropping the head-to-head argument. In addition to being the most popular group within the bubble, Team B can declare to have overwhelmed groups that different groups within the bubble have did not defeat. Team B beat two groups that Team C misplaced to, successful each video games by at the very least 21 factors. Team B additionally outscored by 26 a group that Team D misplaced to.
In phrases of group composition, Team B is just not spectacular in assault. He ranks forty eighth in yards, 52nd in yards per play and forty second in scoring. However, they’ve top-of-the-line defenses within the nation, rating sixteenth in yards allowed and 14th in factors allowed.
Team C
- Record: 9-3 (.750)
- AP Grade: eleventh
- SOS: 17
- Points/recreation differential: 18.3 (twelfth)
- Wins in opposition to present CFP high 25 groups: 3-1 (.750)+9.0 common level differential in these video games
- +9.0 factors common distinction in these video games
- Best win (highest CFP ranking win): Against the group at present in fifth place
- Record in opposition to FBS groups with successful data: 5-1 (.833)
- Record in FBS highway/impartial video games: 2-3 (.400)
Team C’s greatest argument is that different groups within the bubble do not have such sturdy wins. In addition to beating the group at present ranked fifth within the CFP ballot, Team C additionally had wins over Team B and the Nineteenth-ranked group. Team C’s victories over the fifth-ranked group and Team B had been solely by one rating, however they beat the Nineteenth-ranked group by 34 factors.
In addition to a head-to-head win in opposition to Team B, Team C additionally beat a group that each Teams B and D misplaced to by 29 factors. Team C’s solely loss to a ranked group was by seven factors on the highway. However, Team C’s different two losses got here in opposition to groups that completed the season 6-6. One of these losses was 21 factors. They have additionally misplaced three of their final 4 video games on the highway, which is one thing to think about, as they’ll virtually actually play on the highway within the first spherical in the event that they make the CFP.
Team C’s offense was some of the electrifying offenses within the recreation for a lot of the season earlier than operating into some points later within the yr. However, he ranked fortieth within the nation in yards, twenty second in yards per play and Seventeenth in factors. However, he has performed higher protection extra not too long ago. He ranks thirty third in yards allowed and eleventh in factors allowed.
Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd weigh in on the CFP committee rankings
Team D
- Record: 9-3 (.750)
- AP Rank: fifteenth
- SOS: 31
- Points/recreation differential: 23.6 (4th)
- Wins in opposition to present CFP high 25: 2-0 (1,000)+21 factors common distinction in these video games
- +21 factors common distinction in these video games
- Best win (highest CFP ranking win): Against the group at present in fifth place
- Record in opposition to FBS groups with successful data: 3-2 (.600)
- Record in FBS highway/impartial video games: 3-2 (.600)
Team D has displayed a excessive ceiling all through the 2024 season. Unlike the opposite three groups on the bubble, it may well declare to have overwhelmed each ranked group it has confronted this season. They defeated the fifth-ranked group by 18 factors and Team B on the highway by 24. They additionally beat one of many groups that Team C misplaced to by 12 factors.
On the opposite hand, in all probability nobody else within the bubble has worse losses than these suffered by Team D. All three of the losses suffered by Team D are to groups which might be at present not ranked within the CFP ballot. One of these losses was to a 7-5 group and the opposite to a 4-8 group that has only one win in opposition to a Power Conference foe this season.
Similar to Team A, Team D has top-of-the-line offenses within the nation. He ranks second in yards, second in yards per play and ninth in scoring. Unlike Team A, nevertheless, Team D’s protection has been sturdy this season. He ranks 18th in yards allowed and fourth in factors in opposition to.
Klatt and Cowherd’s verdict: Team C
Now, for the reveal: Team A is Miami, Team B is South Carolina, Team C is Alabama, and Team D is Ole Miss.
Since there was some buzz about Alabama’s placement within the CFP rankings attributable to its Week 13 loss to Oklahoma, 24-3, each Klatt and Cowherd agreed that its resume was the strongest of the 4.
“Miami, you play in a foul convention, you may have two losses and you do not have one good win,” Cowherd stated. “Alabama has three losses. Ideally, I do not prefer it. I do not suppose you need to have two mulligans. But they beat Georgia. Losing to Oklahoma is not the worst factor on the planet. They had been additionally 3-1 in opposition to I do not prefer it that ranked groups have an additional mulligan… however I favor Alabama to Miami and the opposite choices.”
Alabama and Texas in Joel Klatt’s remaining CFP bracket
Klatt believed Alabama’s resume would beat any of the opposite three bubble groups head-to-head.
“I believe based mostly on the energy of the schedule (and) based mostly on what Miami did of their ACC play, they’d a really favorable ACC schedule the place they did not need to schedule numerous the highest groups,” Klatt stated. “Bama’s resume is not nice. For me, the bubble was these eleventh by means of 14th groups: Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Miami. If you set Alabama head-to-head, resume after resume with all these bubble groups , they win the argument.”
Klatt was eager to level out that whereas he would not essentially suppose Alabama is a real title contender, it has the strongest playoff case among the many remaining bubble groups.
“I do know individuals do not prefer it and I perceive that,” Klatt added. “I’m not saying it is a nice possibility. I’m simply saying that in an argument, Bama wins these arguments. Miami would not have a win within the standings. You may even say they’re dropping on the mistaken time, dropping two of their final three video games.
“That’s not an excellent possibility, and I do not suppose Alabama is a good group. I do not suppose they’ve an opportunity to win the nationwide championship. But in a resume argument with Miami, they win that argument.”
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